Cincinnati Bengals Playoff Chances Week 4: Tracking the Bengals Playoff Picture

Fact Checked by Wes Roesch
Joe Burrow Scoring Touchdown in Playoffs

Key Takeaways:

  • The Bengals playoff chances are 50%, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
  • The Bengals have a 19.05% chance to win the division, which is the third-best among AFC North teams.
  • The Bengals odds to win Super Bowl LVIII are +2000, giving them a 4.76% chance to win.

The Bengals have not won a Super Bowl in their lengthy history. They have made the AFC Championship Game in the last two seasons, appearing in the Super Bowl in the 2021 season but losing to the Los Angeles Rams. Behind Joe Burrow, there is hope that this could be the year Cincinnati gets over the hump. It is truly Super Bowl or bust territory for the Bengals in 2023.

The sportsbooks agree, and if you look at the Bengals Super Bowl odds, there's little denying they are among the favorites. I will be tracking the Bengals' playoffs chances throughout the regular season. Bookmark this page to stay in the loop with the everchanging NFL landscape.

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What Are the Bengals Playoff Chances?

The Bengals' playoff chances are 50%, which is below the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns. Cincinnati was the AFC North favorite prior to the start of the season. In the table below, I've listed Cincinnati's chances to make the postseason, as well as some other relevant data to provide further context.

โญ Bengals Playoff Chances50% chance
โ›” Bengals Miss Playoffs50% chance
๐Ÿ‘‘ Bengals Win Super Bowl4.76% chance
๐Ÿ† Bengals Win AFC9.09% chance
๐Ÿ”ฅ Bengals Win AFC North19.05% chance
๐Ÿˆ ESPN Football Power Index (FPI)1.5 FPI (10th)
โœ… Data Last Verified by ExpertSeptember 30, 2023

I figured out the Bengals' playoff picture using the implied probability of the team's odds to make the postseason. You'll find playoff odds for every NFL team posted by the top Ohio sportsbooks. For this particular chart's data, I used DraftKings Sportsbook Ohio. Converting the Bengalsโ€™ current odds of -110 to make the playoffs provided the 50% chance highlighted above. They were at -255 and 72% before the season's start.

The Bengals sit with the fourth-best odds to win the AFC North. They have won the title in two consecutive seasons but are behind the ball as every other team in the division is sitting 2-1. The Browns and Ravens are at +195 and the Steelers are at +350. The Bengals sit at +370. They have a 19.05% chance to win the division now and a 9.09% chance to reign supreme over the entire conference. The Bengals have the eighth-best odds to win the Super Bowl at 4.76%.

The New York Times Postseason Simulator tracks every eligible NFL team's playoff chances, but it is not yet available for the 2023 season. ESPN's Football Power Index predicts each NFL team's efficiency and future team strength.

Bengals Week-by-Week Playoff Chances

The Bengals currently have -110 odds (50% implied probability) to make the playoffs in 2023, per DraftKings Sportsbook, which remains unchanged from Week 3.

โ†”๏ธ Preseason-245 (72% chance)
โฌ‡๏ธ After Week 1-200 (66.7% chance)
โฌ‡๏ธ After Week 2-110 (50% chance)
โ†”๏ธ After Week 3-110 (50% chance)

Bengals Schedule and Betting Lines

๐Ÿ“… Week 1 at Cleveland BrownsBengals (0-1) lose 24-3
๐Ÿ“… Week 2 vs. Baltimore RavensBengals (0-2) lose 27-24
๐Ÿ“… Week 3 vs. Los Angeles RamsBengals (1-2) win 19-16
๐Ÿ“… Week 4 at Tennessee TitansBengals -2.5, ML -134
๐Ÿ“… Week 5 at Arizona CardinalsBengals -7.5, ML -340
๐Ÿ“… Week 6 vs. Seattle SeahawksBengals -4.5, ML -205
๐Ÿ“… Week 7BYE
๐Ÿ“… Week 8 at San Francisco 49ersBengals +1, ML -105
๐Ÿ“… Week 9 vs. Buffalo BillsBengals -1, ML -115
๐Ÿ“… Week 10 vs. Houston TexansBengals -9.5, ML -425
๐Ÿ“… Week 11 at Baltimore RavensBengals -1, ML -115
๐Ÿ“… Week 12 vs. Pittsburgh SteelersBengals -4.5, ML -200
๐Ÿ“… Week 13 at Jacksonville JaguarsBengals -1, ML -115
๐Ÿ“… Week 14 vs. Indianapolis ColtsBengals -9, ML -410
๐Ÿ“… Week 15 vs. Minnesota VikingsBengals -5, ML -205
๐Ÿ“… Week 16 at Pittsburgh SteelersBengals -2.5, ML -130
๐Ÿ“… Week 17 at Kansas City ChiefsBengals +3, ML +135
๐Ÿ“… Week 18 vs. Cleveland BrownsBengals -3.5, ML -175
โœ… Data Verified by ExpertSeptember 30, 2023

The Cincinnati Bengals do not have an easy schedule this season as the Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens, and Cleveland Browns (the three other teams in the AFC North) are all expected to contend for a postseason spot. The Sharp Strength of Schedule indicator has the Bengals with the 20th-easiest strength of schedule.

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Cincinnati Bengals Playoff Chances: Key Offseason Updates September 2023

To keep Bengals fans with the most up-to-date information this offseason, I am tracking breaking news and developments impacting the Bengals' playoff chances and then listing them below.

  • ๐Ÿ—“๏ธ September 25: Ja'Marr Chase explodes on Monday Night Football for personal single-game record with 12 targets.
  • ๐Ÿ—“๏ธ September 18: Browns RB Nick Chubb has torn MCL, is ruled out for the season.
  • ๐Ÿ—“๏ธ September 18: QB Joe Burrow has playbook dialed back as calf strain lingers.
  • ๐Ÿ—“๏ธ September 7: QB Joe Burrow signs a five-year, $275 million contract extension ($219.01 million guaranteed).
  • ๐Ÿ—“๏ธ August 4: LB Logan Wilson gets a four-year, $37.25 million extension.
  • ๐Ÿ—“๏ธ July 28: QB Joe Burrow strains his calf in training camp and will consequently miss the rest of camp and preseason.
  • ๐Ÿ—“๏ธ April 29: Purdue WR Charlie Jones, Illinois RB Chase Brown, Princeton WR Andrei Iosivas, Michigan punter Brad Robbins, and Miami CB D.J. Ivey are drafted on Day 3.
  • ๐Ÿ—“๏ธ April 28: The Bengals select Michigan CB D.J. Turner II and Alabama safety Jordan Battle on Day 2 of the 2023 NFL Draft.
  • ๐Ÿ“† April 27: The Bengals select DE Myles Murphy with the No. 28 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.
  • ๐Ÿ“† April 25: The Bengals pick up QB Joe Burrow's fifth-year option, extending his rookie contract through the 2024 season.
  • ๐Ÿ“† April 5: The Bengals sign DE Tarell Basham to a one-year deal.
  • ๐Ÿ“† April 3: Reports emerge the team is actively negotiating with QB Joe Burrow on a contract extension.
  • ๐Ÿ“† March 30: TE Irv Smith Jr. signs a one-year deal with the Bengals.
  • ๐Ÿ“† March 20: Nick Scott is signed to a three-year, $12 million deal to be the starting safety opposite Dax Hill.
  • ๐Ÿ“† March 16: The top free-agent available at offensive tackle, Orlando Brown Jr., signs a four-year deal worth $64 million with the Bengals after winning the Super Bowl last year with the Chiefs.
  • ๐Ÿ“† March 16: Cody Ford is signed to a one-year with an opportunity to compete for the starting right tackle position in camp.
  • ๐Ÿ“† March 14: Bengals extend starting LB Germaine Pratt with a three-year contract through 2025 after Pratt recorded career highs in tackles, tackles for loss, pass-deflections and interceptions last season.

I will continue to add to this list as more Bengals news breaks, so bookmark this page to keep up to date.

Key Contributors Toward Bengals Playoff Chances

There are several big-name talents on the Bengals' depth chart. None are more notable than quarterback Joe Burrow, who heads the team's high-octane attack. Burrow looked better in Week 3, throwing for 259 yards in 26 completions and 49 attempts. He continues to battle a calf strain sustained in training camp.

The Bengals have been a playoff and Super Bowl contender since his arrival in 2020. Burrow threw for the second-most touchdowns (35) last season, only being beaten out by Patrick Mahomes. At DraftKings, Joe Burrow MVP odds sit at +2000, down from +750 after his pitiful Week 1.

Along with Burrow, the Bengals offense has WR Ja'Marr Chase, WR Tee Higgins and OL Orlando Brown Jr. who all are deserving of a mention. Higgins is in a contract year without an extension finalized, so he will want to ensure he showcases his value this season. For Brown Jr., the team added the former Chiefs star to strengthen its offensive line this offseason. Chase, the third-year receiver, is +1600 to win Offensive Player of the Year at DraftKings Sportsbook Ohio. He went off for 12 receptions and 141 yards in the Bengals' Week 3 win. Chase and Hall of Famer Randy Moss are the only players in NFL history to record 3,000-plus receiving yards and 20-plus receiving touchdowns in his first two seasons, including the playoffs. Along with Tyler Boyd, the Bengals have the best trio of receivers in the NFL.

Defensively, a few of the most notable names are Trey Hendrickson and Logan Wilson. The team also used its first-round pick to grab Clemson rusher Myles Murphy. Hendrickson had 35.5 sacks in his last three seasons and had 13-plus sacks in each of the 2020 and 2021 seasons. As for Wilson, he is coming off his best season in the NFL, totaling 123 tackles and 2.5 sacks, both the highest of his three-year career.

Where Can I Bet on the Cincinnati Bengals to Make the Playoffs?

One can bet on the Cincinnati Bengals to make the playoffs at any legal sportsbook in Ohio or any legal sportsbook app available in Ohio. Those include DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars and Barstool Sportsbook Ohio. You can wager on several futures for Cincinnati, including to win the AFC North, win the Super Bowl, miss the playoffs, make the playoffs and its win total along with many others.

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Looking Ahead: Bengals Playoff Picture

The Cincinnati Bengals have played at Arrowhead Stadium in two straight AFC Championship Games, taking on the Kansas City Chiefs. In 2021, they won 27-24, dethroning the Chiefs. The Bengals lost to the Rams 23-20 in the Super Bowl that season. In 2022, the Bengals lost 23-20 with the game nearly ending on a 45-yard field goal with just a few seconds left by Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker. The Chiefs beat the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LVII.

So what does that say about this upcoming year? Well, it suggests that it is Super Bowl or bust. If Joe Burrow stays healthy, this team should again be the best in the AFC North, and with an improved offensive line and strengthened defensive line, there's no reason they can't make it back to the Super Bowl and hopefully win one for the first time in franchise history.

The chief concern for the Cincinnati Bengals in clinching a playoff berth will be their secondary. The offensive line's depth could also play a factor, but losing both safeties and replacing them with a second-year player and a mid-tier starter for a non-playoff team is concerning. Joe Burrow's health will now be a factor after many figured his calf strain was healed coming into the season. In the secondary, Cam Taylor-Britt will play a huge factor, as will Chidobe Awuzie, who is returning from a torn ACL that he sustained last season. The Bengals have picked four players in their secondary in the first three rounds over the last two seasons, and it will be time for them to step up and help this team earn a third straight playoff berth.

Do the Bengals Have a Chance to Make the Playoffs?

Yes, the Bengals have a good chance to make the playoffs in 2023. While the Bengals playoffs odds were better before the season and even after a lousy Week 1 showing, there is still hope for the Bengals, and they have a 50% chance to make the playoffs despite a rough start to the season.

Cincinnati was the favorite to win the AFC North prior to the start of the season but now sits at +425 to win the division, the fourth-best odds. It has won the division in two straight seasons and has made it to two straight AFC Championship Games as well. Anything short of winning the division and making a deep playoff run would be a failure for the Bengals this season. If you plan to bet on the Bengals this season, I highly recommend checking out these Bengals sportsbook promo codes.

Are the Bengals Out of Playoffs?

No, the Bengals are not out of the playoff race yet. While Week 3 did showcase their upside, the Bengals have a long way to go to shore up a playoff spot. The Bengals will take on the Titans in Tennessee in Week 4.

Where Do the Bengals Rank in the AFC North?

The Cincinnati Bengals have the third-best odds to win the division, currently at +370. The Bengals are 1-2 while the rest of the division is 2-1. Their odds have gone from +150 to +245 to +475 to +370. The Bengals have lost to two division foes already, 24-3 to the Browns and 27-24 to the Ravens. They beat the Rams 19-16 in Week 3. As it stands, a $100 bet for the Bengals to win the AFC North would result in $425 returned for a total payout of $525.

Prior to the season, they were well above the Lamar Jackson-led Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens have moved from +110 prior to Week 3 to +165, which is still the shortest in the division. Baltimore lost starting back J.K. Dobbins for the season in its 25-9 victory over the Houston Texans in Week 1. The Ravens haven't won the division since Jackson's MVP-winning campaign in 2019.

The Cleveland Browns have looked better than most expected, but losing star back Nick Chubb in Week 2 was a massive blow. They are tied for the best odds to win the AFC North. Their odds prior to their Week 3 win were +350. The Browns have never won the AFC North. They won the AFC Central in 1989, though.

Finally, the Steelers have kicked off the season 2-1 as well. They beat the Raiders 23-18 in Week 3 and have won two straight after being obliterated 30-7 by the San Francisco 49ers at home in Week 1. Pittsburgh has the third-shortest odds to win the division.

Where Do the Bengals Rank in the AFC Playoff Standings?

Despite a rougher-than-expected start to the season, the Bengals still have one of the best quarterbacks in the league paired with a trio of outstanding receivers. Health for Burrow will be a key factor, but aspirations should still be high in Cincinnati.

The Bengals still are in control of their playoff destiny and have 14 games ahead of them to right this ship. Cincinnati will visit Tennessee in Week 4, having beaten the Titans during the regular season in 2022 and the playoffs in 2021. Cincinnati is a 2.5-point favorite on the road.

Where Do the Bengals Rank in the AFC Wild-Card Race?

The season is just three weeks in, so every team in the AFC still has a chance to win their division or end up clinching a playoff berth as one of the three wild-card teams. The Bengals have the third-best odds to win the AFC North. They have won it in two straight seasons and started off in 2022 with a season-opening loss as well. Winning the division would guarantee Cincinnati a home playoff game.

Can the Bengals Get the No. 1 Seed?

Yes, the Bengals can still get the No. 1 seed. They ended with the No. 4 seed in 2021 and then the No. 3 seed last season. The Bengals are among the favorites this upcoming season to win the AFC and earn home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Those odds have since dropped, but the talent is still there in Cincinnati.

Who to Root for if Youโ€™re a Bengals Fan

If you're a Bengals fan, at almost all costs, root against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns. Most Bengals fans have different opinions on who their most-hated AFC North team is, but one should root against inner-division foes. It is also smart to root against the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills, as they are expected to be the top contenders for the top spot in the AFC, and those teams losing should open the door even further for the Bengals to be No. 1.

Bengals Postseason Outlook and Predictions

The Cincinnati Bengals have been the best team in the AFC North over the last two seasons and have been among the best in the NFL. They lost the 2021 Super Bowl by just three points after allowing a game-winning touchdown to Offensive Player of the Year Cooper Kupp. The Bengals ended up losing by just three points. In 2022, they against lost by three in heartbreaking fashion as Butker sent them home with a 45-yard field goal. They have gotten so close to bringing home the Lombardi Trophy for the very first time in franchise history.

The truth is that the Bengals have the weapons, coaching staff, experience and stars to both get back to the playoffs and stay a contending team for the long-term future. With players like Pratt and Wilson locked up, the defense should continue as a strong point for this organization. Burrow was able to get his extension prior to the season while Higgins' future will remain up in the air. Chase is eligible for an extension next offseason.

Nonetheless, protection has been added for Burrow, and the team's wide receiver corps is still intact. The Bengals have a few weak points โ€“ their secondary โ€“ but, with the right coaching, there's good reason to believe the Bengals can make it back to the playoffs and end their year with another lengthy postseason run.

It's Super Bowl or bust for the Bengals, and fans would love to see the former be the team's reality this season.

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Cincinnati Bengals Playoffs FAQs


Nathan, a lifelong Cincinnatian, has covered the Bengals and Buckeyes at various outlets for the last half decade. He is most proud to have attended both wins of the Bengals' 2-14 season in 2019. Nathan is our go-to expert for all things Bengals and Buckeyes.

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