2024 Democratic Nominee Odds: Odds Tracker for Democratic Candidates

Fact Checked by Thomas Leary
Joe Biden speaks at press conference

The Democratic nominee odds are all pointing one way as we near the primaries ahead of the 2024 U.S. election — and it's fair to say this is still President Joe Biden's race to lose. Biden (-275) has announced his intention to run for a second term, and it looks almost certain he will top the Dems ticket once again.

Election betting on the Democratic side has focused largely on Biden over the past few months. The likes of Vice President Kamala Harris, California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Michelle Obama are pulling at the market, but most bettors favor Biden right now.

Indeed, there is a feeling among Democrats that no one but Biden can take on Donald Trump or Nikki Haley in a nationwide election. It means Biden's odds are being squeezed to a near-insurmountable position, though he has faced some hiccups in the past couple months. The president faced negative press in early February for his mishandling of classified documents, as critics continue to question his memory issues and ability to serve another four years.

However, his odds suggest he has a 74% chance of securing the Democratic nomination once again.

Latest 2024 Democratic Nominee Odds

The Democratic primaries began in South Carolina on Feb. 3 and end in June. It's likely we will have a winner by the time voters in Montana and New Jersey cast their votes. Here are the latest Democratic nominee odds 2024:

Joe Biden-275 (74% Chance)
Michelle Obama+400 (20% Chance)
Gavin Newsom+800 (11% Chance)
Kamala Harris+1100 (8% Chance)
✅ Last VerifiedApril 17, 2024

Favorites to be the Democratic Nominee in 2024

There are three frontrunners within the Democratic party to top the 2024 presidential ticket. Biden is way out ahead of the rest but betting site bet365 thinks both Gavin Newsom and Michelle Obama stand an outside chance of defeating the veteran president. Here's a quick breakdown of each of the lead candidates:

  • Joe Biden — At odds of -275, it's evident betting sites expect Biden to cruise through these primaries. An incumbent president usually wins out if they want to run for a second term, and it's a surprise Biden's odds aren't even shorter. However, his age and occasional health scares mean betting sites can't commit any further than -275 on Biden winning this race. He also faced negative press in early February for his mishandling of classified documents, as critics continue to question his memory issues.
  • Michelle Obama — The former First Lady has shot up the oddsboard since August, rising from +2000 in early August to +650 as of late September. She now stands at +400. Would the Obamas really welcome a return to the White House? According to bet365, it's still a possibility.
  • Gavin Newsom — What if Biden is unable to run on health grounds? This is the question sportsbooks are asking, and it's why the odds on Gavin Newsom remain somewhat competitive at +800. Newsom appears the ideal replacement for Biden and isn't expected to be his VP. He can therefore contest the presidency during the primaries and perhaps pick up votes from those unhappy with Biden's performance since 2020.
  • Kamala Harris — Vice president Kamala Harris was meant to naturally succeed Biden in 2024 once the veteran president ceded power after one term. But Harris' terrible approval ratings means the Dems didn't want her coming up against Trump. Harris faces a battle to remain Biden's vice president, let alone run for president herself. At current odds of +1100 betting sites have somewhat given up on her.
  • Best of the rest — Hillary Clinton lost to Trump in 2016, and it's unlikely she will run again, especially considering she has current odds of +8000 to secure the nomination.

2024 Democratic Nominee Odds Set At bet365

Online sportsbook bet365 released its Democratic nomination market in March 2022 and immediately backed Biden as the odds on favorite.

Known as one of the most wide-reaching online gambling platforms, bet365 is licensed in several American states, including Ohio. Nevertheless, it's important to note U.S. bettors are legally prohibited from wagering on political outcomes, and these political odds are sourced from bet365's UK site.

How to Read the 2024 Democratic Nominee Odds 

Reading the Democratic primary odds is simple, and we'll use Michelle Obama to explain how it works. Obama is +400 to win the vote and top the Dems ticket. That means a bettor who wagers $100 on Obama will get $400 back as profit (plus their $100 stake). 

Democratic Vice Presidential Odds

Just as you might wonder who will run for the 2024 Democratic nomination, you may also be curious about potential vice presidential candidates. What is interesting about betting on the Vice President is that you only predict who the Presidential nominee for 2024 will select as their running mate. There are many prospects for the 2024 VP Democratic nominee, although one clear favorite.  Right now, the latest VP nominee odds are as follows:

Democratic VP NomineeDemocratic VP Odds
Kamala Harris-800
Pete Buttigieg+2500
Amy Klobuchar+1500
Gretchen Whitmer+1500
Michelle Obama+3000

Is Hillary Clinton running for Democratic VP 2024?

Many people have wondered whether Hillary Clinton would run for Democratic VP, or even accept a VP position in 2020. In the last election, she was open about considering running for VP alongside Mike Bloomberg. After he dropped out of the race, there was speculation Biden would not risk her as a candidate. In 2016, Trump beat Clinton which could make her more of an anchor over an asset. During Clinton's 2016 run, British sportsbook William Hill took the biggest known political bet, by a 46 year old female, on her winning the 2016 U.S. Presidency. The bet totaled $615,582 with a 73% chance of success. Had she won, the bettor would have profited $224,000.

Is Betting on the Election Legal?

Election betting is not legal in the state of Ohio. While betting sites are able to provide sports odds in more than half of states across America, no state is yet to legalize election odds. All odds referenced in this article relate to bet365's U.K. markets, where betting on politics is legal. This means you won't find any betting odds at any of the Ohio sports betting apps. We cannot emphasize enough that not only is political betting illegal in Ohio, its also illegal federally. We do not advise anyone to pursue this type of bet — which would only be available offshore. Offshore betting as a whole is also illegal and not recommended. 

It's worth noting that while you might not be able to bet on the latest Democratic Nominee odds at Ohio sportsbooks, sometimes operators will feature blog posts on the latest odds for entertainment purposes and conversation. 

Key Developments for Democratic Nominees 2024

  • 📅 February 2024 – While Joe Biden avoids criminal charges for mishandling classified documents, his election odds slightly lengthen as critics take issue with his memory lapses, according to the Justice Department's findings.
  • 📅 September 2023 – While Joe Biden remains a heavy front-runner, Michelle Obama passes Kamala Harris and Robert Kennedy Jr. on the oddsboard.
  • 📅 July 2023 – As of summer 2023, more than 150 candidates have put their name forward for the Democratic primaries. However, Biden's odds continue to squeeze.
  • 📅 April 2023 – Robert Kennedy Jr. announces he is running in the Democratic primaries a week before Biden launches his campaign on social media. Harris is spotted in Biden's campaign video, raising expectations that she will not seek the Democratic nomination and instead will be his VP choice once more.
  • 📅 March 2023 – Marianne Williamson becomes the first major Democratic candidate to announce they are running for president.
  • 📅 November 2022 – Biden's poll ratings spike after the Democrats hold on to the Senate in the 2022 U.S. midterms. His odds fall to -250 after the damage-limiting success.
  • 📅 July 2022 – A poll shows most Democrats don't want Biden to run again. However, very few figures appear willing to challenge him.
  • 📅 January 2022 – Calls grow louder for a "progressive" left candidate to take on Biden in the primaries.
  • 📅 September 2021 – Newsom emerges as a viable contender to succeed Biden, as Harris' approval ratings worsen.
  • 📅 August 2021 – Biden's approval ratings sink to a record low after America's disastrous withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan leads to the Taliban's resurgence.
  • 📅 February 2021 – Sportsbooks set a price of +400 on Biden winning the 2024 primaries after a rocky start to his first 100 days as president.
  • 📅 November 2020 – Biden wins the 2020 U.S. election but there is expectation that Harris will succeed him for 2024.

Will Biden Choose Not to Run in 2024?

President Biden has already announced he is running for president in 2024. However, he will be almost 82 come the next election and has endured a number of health scares over his first term. Betting sites expect him to secure the Democratic nomination but they're not totally convinced. That's why the odds on Joe Biden to win remain surprisingly high for an incumbent president.

Will Biden Lose the Party Nomination?

Right now, when comparing the Republican nominee odds and Democratic nominee odds, it looks unlikely that president Joe Biden will lose the Democratic nomination. His election betting odds suggest he has a 74% chance of being chosen to run in 2024 against the current Republican nominee, which is likely to be Donald Trump or Nikki Haley.

The only way Biden could lose the nomination from this position of strength is if he withdraws from the race himself, perhaps on health grounds.

Can Michelle Obama Win the 2024 Democratic Nominee?

Obama has a 20% chance of winning the Democratic party nomination, according to sportsbooks. She was not expected to be Biden's lead challenger, but might prove too popular for the majority of Democratic members. However, the former First Lady has yet to announce she is actually running.

Will Biden be Beat for the Party Nomination?

The election odds suggest Biden will not be beat for the Democratic nomination. Newsom is better priced than Michelle Obama to beat Biden in the primaries but neither figure is carrying good odds right now. Indeed, betting sites think Biden has better than a two-in-three chance of winning.

2024 Democratic Nominee Odds FAQ


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