2024 Democratic Nominee Odds: Odds Tracker for Democratic Candidates

Fact Checked by Thomas Leary
Joe Biden speaks at press conference

President Joe Biden (+137) is no longer the favorite to serve as the Democratic Party’s nominee and seek re-election in November, as his VP Kamala Harris (+100) has overtaken him on the oddsboard. Biden's odds and the confidence others have in him have dwindled after his first debate performance against former President Donald Trump.

After speaking incoherently at times and appearing disconnected at others in the national debate held by CNN, several party leaders and political experts began to question whether the 81-year-old should carry on in the campaign. Facing only token opposition in primaries, Biden easily secured the delegates needed to win the nomination leading up to next month’s Democratic National Conventions. Despite that, though, there’s growing concern we may see our first contested national convention in more than 70 years. 

Currently, Biden stands at +137 at bet365 to be the Democratic nominee. Those odds imply a 42% chance he’ll be on the ticket in November, far from a sure thing across Ohio sports betting.

Through April, May and the first part of June, Biden’s implied probability stayed above 80%, according to Real Clear Politics.

Latest 2024 Democratic Nominee Odds

The last Democratic primaries took place in June. Biden secured nearly all the party’s delegates and has 3,894. U.S. Rep. Dean Phillips earned four and 39 have been pledged to other candidates. Once a candidate reaches 1,968 delegates during open voting at next month’s national convention in Chicago, they will officially become the party’s official nominee. The last convention needing more than one round of voting was the 1952 Democratic Convention, which was also held in Chicago.

Here are the latest Democratic nominee odds 2024:

Kamala Harris+100 (50.0% Chance)
Joe Biden+137 (42.19% Chance)
Gavin Newsom+900 (10% Chance)
Michelle Obama+1000 (9.09% Chance)
✅ Last VerifiedJuly 17, 2024

Favorites to be the Democratic Nominee in 2024

Harris is now the leader on the bet365 odds board. However, favorites don’t always win. Here’s a breakdown of the top candidates outside of Biden.

  • Kamala Harris — Biden’s vice president once had odds of +1100, but now those have been shortened significantly to +100. As the current VP, Harris would become president should something happen to Biden during this term. It would be likely she would become the de facto nominee should Biden step aside, but that, too, isn’t guaranteed.
  • Gavin Newsom — The governor of California has basically been the standby candidate for many in the Democratic Party. He’s 56 and has garnered a high national profile in recent years. One thing to note, the U.S. Constitution would prohibit Newsom being Harris’ vice presidential pick (or vice versa) as it preclude both nominees being from the state. Harris previously served as California’s attorney general and a U.S. senator before Biden picked her four years ago.
  • Michelle Obama — The former First Lady has remained on the board for some time, although her office has stressed repeatedly she supports Biden, who served as VP to her husband former President Barack Obama during his two terms in office. While her spokesperson has said she would not run, would that change if Biden were no longer the likely nominee?
  • Gretchen Whitmer — The governor of Michigan also serves as the vice chair for the Democratic National Committee. Calls for her to be on the ticket have been on the rise since Biden’s dismal showing last week. As Michigan is a key battleground state – one Democrats need to win in November – her presence on the ticket as either president or VP would certainly help the party’s cause.
  • Best of the rest — Hillary Clinton lost to Trump eight years ago and would not likely be considered the party’s nominee. Robert Kennedy Jr. napalmed bridges within the party his family has led for generations after announcing a third-party campaign for this year’s election. Pete Buttigieg, Biden’s Transportation Secretary, ran unsuccessfully four years ago, but at just 42, he remains a rising star within the party and someone who will likely be among the names tossed out as potential candidates in four (or eight years).

2024 Democratic Nominee Odds Set At bet365

Online sportsbook bet365 released its Democratic nomination market in March 2022 and immediately backed Biden as the odds on favorite.

Known as one of the most wide-reaching online gambling platforms, bet365 is licensed in several American states, including Ohio. Nevertheless, it's important to note U.S. bettors are legally prohibited from wagering on political outcomes, and these political odds are sourced from bet365's UK site.

How to Read the 2024 Democratic Nominee Odds 

Reading the Democratic primary odds is simple, and we'll use Gavin Newsom to explain how it works. Newsom is +900 to win the vote and top the Dems ticket. That means a bettor who wagers $100 on Newsom will get $900 back as profit (plus their $100 stake). 

Democratic Vice Presidential Odds

Just as you might wonder who will run for the 2024 Democratic nomination, you may also be curious about potential vice presidential candidates. What is interesting about betting on the Vice President is that you only predict who the Presidential nominee for 2024 will select as their running mate. As of now, bet365 does not offer any odds on the vice presidential nominee, a clear assumption that Harris will remain on the ticket.

Is Hillary Clinton running for Democratic VP 2024?

Many people have wondered whether Hillary Clinton would run for Democratic VP, or even accept a VP position in 2020. In the last election, she was open about considering running for VP alongside Mike Bloomberg. After he dropped out of the race, there was speculation Biden would not risk her as a candidate. In 2016, Trump beat Clinton which could make her more of an anchor over an asset. During Clinton's 2016 run, British sportsbook William Hill took the biggest known political bet, by a 46 year old female, on her winning the 2016 U.S. Presidency. The bet totaled $615,582 with a 73% chance of success. Had she won, the bettor would have profited $224,000.

Is Betting on the Election Legal?

Election betting is not legal in the state of Ohio. While betting sites are able to provide sports odds in more than half of states across America, no state is yet to legalize election odds. All odds referenced in this article relate to bet365's U.K. markets, where betting on politics is legal. This means you won't find any betting odds at any of the Ohio sports betting apps. We cannot emphasize enough that not only is political betting illegal in Ohio, its also illegal federally. We do not advise anyone to pursue this type of bet — which would only be available offshore. Offshore betting as a whole is also illegal and not recommended. 

It's worth noting that while you might not be able to bet on the latest Democratic Nominee odds at Ohio sportsbooks, sometimes operators will feature blog posts on the latest odds for entertainment purposes and conversation. 

Key Developments for Democratic Nominees 2024

  • 📅 June 2024 - Biden’s performance in a nationally televised debate is widely panned by many within the Democratic Party, leading to questions of whether he is fit to remain the nominee.
  • 📅 February 2024 – While Joe Biden avoids criminal charges for mishandling classified documents, his election odds slightly lengthen as critics take issue with his memory lapses, according to the Justice Department's findings.
  • 📅 September 2023 – While Joe Biden remains a heavy front-runner, Michelle Obama passes Kamala Harris and Robert Kennedy Jr. on the oddsboard.
  • 📅 July 2023 – As of summer 2023, more than 150 candidates have put their name forward for the Democratic primaries. However, Biden's odds continue to squeeze.
  • 📅 April 2023 – Robert Kennedy Jr. announces he is running in the Democratic primaries a week before Biden launches his campaign on social media. Harris is spotted in Biden's campaign video, raising expectations that she will not seek the Democratic nomination and instead will be his VP choice once more.
  • 📅 March 2023 – Marianne Williamson becomes the first major Democratic candidate to announce they are running for president.
  • 📅 November 2022 – Biden's poll ratings spike after the Democrats hold on to the Senate in the 2022 U.S. midterms. His odds fall to -250 after the damage-limiting success.
  • 📅 July 2022 – A poll shows most Democrats don't want Biden to run again. However, very few figures appear willing to challenge him.
  • 📅 January 2022 – Calls grow louder for a "progressive" left candidate to take on Biden in the primaries.
  • 📅 September 2021 – Newsom emerges as a viable contender to succeed Biden, as Harris' approval ratings worsen.
  • 📅 August 2021 – Biden's approval ratings sink to a record low after America's disastrous withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan leads to the Taliban's resurgence.
  • 📅 February 2021 – Sportsbooks set a price of +400 on Biden winning the 2024 primaries after a rocky start to his first 100 days as president.
  • 📅 November 2020 – Biden wins the 2020 U.S. election but there is expectation that Harris will succeed him for 2024.

Will Biden Choose Not to Run in 2024?

President Biden has already secured enough delegates to be on the ticket. However, he faces significant concerns about his health. Betting sites no longer expect him to secure the Democratic nomination.

Will Biden Lose the Party Nomination?

Right now, when comparing the Republican nominee odds and Democratic nominee odds, it looks possible that president Joe Biden will lose the Democratic nomination. His election betting odds suggest he has a 42% chance of being chosen to run in 2024 against the current Republican nominee, which is likely to be Donald Trump.

While Biden may face a contested convention next month, it will likely be up to him whether he withdraws from the race himself.

Can Michelle Obama Win the 2024 Democratic Nominee?

Obama has a 9% chance of winning the Democratic party nomination, according to sportsbooks. She was not expected to be Biden's lead challenger, but might prove too popular for the majority of Democratic members. However, the former First Lady has said she backs Biden.

Will Biden be Beat for the Party Nomination?

The election odds suggest Biden can be beat for the Democratic nomination. Vice President Harris is the favorite, but Gavin Newsom is close behind. 

2024 Democratic Nominee Odds FAQ

Author

Steve Bittenbender

Steve is an accomplished, award-winning reporter with more than 20 years of experience covering gaming, sports, politics and business. He has written for the Associated Press, Reuters, The Louisville Courier Journal, The Center Square and numerous other publications. Based in Louisville, Ky., Steve has covered the expansion of sports betting in the U.S. and other gaming matters.

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