The home run remains one of the most majestic sights in all of sports. BetOhio.com utilized BaseballSavant.com’s Statcast Park Factors information to determine which MLB ballpark you are most likely to see a home run at in 2023. Statcast Park Factors show the observed effect of each displayed stat based on the events in the selected park. This is potentially something that could come in handy for Ohio sports betting sites. While this is not an exact science, it gives us an idea of which parks affect players most.
Top-10 MLB Stadiums for Home Runs in 2023
Here are this season’s most homer-happy stadiums:
*Over the last 3 seasons
Home Runs at Great American Ball Park is Routine
Great American Ball Park has been one of the preeminent hitter's parks in the league since it opened in 2003, but it particularly inflates home runs. An MLB-high 4188 big flies have been hit in Cincinnati over that span (including eight already through three games this year) and GABP has never had a rolling three-year home run park factor below 114.
Consequently, its current three-year home run factor of 150 (meaning hitters and pitchers who played at GABP saw 50 percent more home runs hit there compared to other parks they played in) is the highest it has ever been, leading the majors by a whopping 26 percentage points.
While no singular reason explains why the stadium is so home-run friendly, there are a couple of elements at play. The outfield dimensions are on the small side, especially in the corners where the fence is just 328 feet in the leftfield and 325 feet in right field. Only six parks contain shallower left fields and only seven feature shallower right fields, with several of the smaller parks including much higher outfield walls than GABP. The weather may also play a factor.
How Weather Impacts the Home Run Surge
Environmental conditions impact the field in ways that help the ball carry more. Per Statcast, every 10 degrees Fahrenheit increases fly ball distance by 1% and Cincinnati recorded the fourth-highest average game-time temperature in the majors in 2022 at 77.9 degrees. Part of this comes from the fact that the Reds played a high number of day games, more than any team besides the Tigers and Cubs last season.
For those visiting GABP, sections 101-106 (LF) and 140-146 (RF) mark the prime locations for home runs. The rightfield power alley (sections 142-144) alone sees a ridiculous 40 percent more balls hit out there than a comparable area at a standard stadium would, with many theorizing the wind along the Ohio River contributes to this despite its generally average breezes.
Projecting the Cincinnati Reds 2023 MLB Season
However, do not expect much out of the home team this season. After ending last season at 62-100, The Reds projected over/under win total of 65.5 for 2023 is tied for the third-worst mark in the majors, ahead of only the Athletics and Nationals according to DraftKings, one of the more popular Ohio betting apps.
And while GABP will help hitters, the Reds do not feature a power-heavy lineup anymore like in years past. The team finished 2022 with 156 home runs, good for 19th in the MLB, but traded the only player on the team to hit 20 or more home runs last year (Brandon Drury) at the trade deadline. With Joey Votto on the injured list to start the season, offseason signee Will Myers and third-year second basemen Jonathan India are the only members of the Opening Day roster to ever eclipse 20 homers in a major league season, and the two of them combined for just 17 bombs last year.
Meanwhile, the Reds' pitching staff had significant issues keeping the ball in the yard in 2022. They surrendered 213 home runs, more than any team except the Nationals, with 128 of them coming at GABP. This accounted for 59 percent of the 217 homers hit at the stadium last season. With another rebuilding squad this year, look for similar numbers as the Reds try to figure out who is part of the long-term plan and who is just a placeholder until better times.
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