NFL Franchise Tag: Will Tee Higgins Be Worth It?

NFL Franchise Tag: Will Tee Higgins Be Worth It?
Fact Checked by Michael Peters

One of the most explosive pass catchers in today’s NFL will keep his talents in Cincinnati for at least another year, as the Bengals used their franchise tag on fifth-year WR Tee Higgins.

Higgins, who saw his overall numbers drop across the board thanks to missing five games with injuries last season, still managed to post an approximate value of six in 12 games, on the heels of consecutive 10 AV campaigns in 2021 and 2022.

The former Clemson Tigers star still managed to average 3.5 receptions per game last season, which was down from the 4.25 he averaged the year prior but still worthy of a stopgap deal worth $21.8 million (the pro-rated amount for wideouts that were slapped with a franchise tag in 2024).

To prepare for Ohio sports betting on the NFL and utilizing, calculated the positive or negative difference between a franchise-tagged players’ season prior to and after the tag occurred. We then found the average approximate value per player of the last three franchise tag classes.

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How Franchise Tagged Players Perform After Deals

Franchise Tag Class # of Players Franchise Tagged  Total Approximate Value (YoY change) Average Approximate Value (YoY change)
2023 6-12-2.0 per player
2022 8-2-0.25 per player
2021 10-6-0.60 per player
3-Year Span 24-20-0.83 per player

Ohio betting apps list San Francisco as the Super Bowl favorite at +500, followed by the Chiefs at +650.

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Can Higgins Snap Franchise Tag Woes?

Over the past three classes of franchise tagged players, a theme has emerged that few involved would like to see, as those athletes have seen a drop in average approximate value of .83 AV on average over the last three years.

Of the 24 players that have been tagged between 2021 and 2023, the total lost AV was -20, with the 2023 class seeing the largest decline (-12 AV across six players), while the 2022 class had the smallest drop-off (-2 AV across eight players).

Of the franchise tag success stories, the shining star was Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, who saw a +7 year-over-year improvement in AV (12 to 19 AV) between 2022 and 2023, with the former Heisman winner taking home his second NFL MVP trophy along the way. FanDuel Ohio lists Jackson as +1200 to win the 2024 NFL most valuable player award. Patrick Mahomes has the best odds at +650.

Spotrac estimates Higgins has a market value of $18.6 million per season, with an estimated deal of four years and $74.4 million. That would put his pay in line with other star wideouts like Mike Williams (three years, $60M), Chris Godwin (three years, $60M), Diontae Johnson (two years, $36.710 million) and Christian Kirk (four years, $72M).

The Bengals Super Bowl odds are +1400, which is currently sixth-best in the NFL.

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Christopher Boan writes for and has been covering sports and sports betting for more than seven years, with experience at, the Tucson Weekly and the Green Valley News.

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