Trump 2024 Odds: Trump Presidential Odds, VP Options and Winning Probability

Donald Trump speaks at press conference

Donald Trump on May 30 was found guilty of all 34 felony counts tied to falsifying business records as part of a plan to influence the 2016 presidential election by a New York jury, making him the first major party nominee to be convicted of crimes. However, for now, Trump's latest election betting odds in the Ohio sports betting market still suggest he is in a more than decent position to return to the Oval Office โ€“ and win The Buckeye State along the way.

Trump after his conviction is holding steady in the polls among Republican voters and looks destined to beat Nikki Haley to the GOP nomination this spring. Trump had grown his base in recent months to a point where he is ahead of President Joe Biden in the political betting markets, despite not yet participating in a Republican primary debate.

Trump has agreed to two debates against Biden, with the first set for June 27. They will then hold a second debate on September 10, according to CNN. How Trump addresses his conviction in the debates remains to be seen, though he called the New York court's conviction a "rigged decision" an hour after the news came down. Trump's sentencing is set for July 11, just days before Republicans are set to officially select him as the 2024 nominee.

Despite the legal woes, his presidential odds have shortended since May 30.

Ahead of the first debate, the Trump 2024 odds are now -150, shortening from +110 in late May. This means Trump is still very well-positioned for a presidential challenge, though odds aren't available at in-state sportsbooks like BetMGM Ohio.

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Latest Donald Trump 2024 Odds To Be President

Former president Donald Trump lost the last election by more than seven million votes but has refused to step away from frontline politics. Instead, his desire to return to the White House and defeat Democrat Joe Biden has never been stronger โ€“ when comparing the latest Democratic nominee odds with Trump's odds, they suggest he is on course for victory.

โญ Donald Trump-125 (55.6% Chance)
Joe Biden+200 (33.3% Chance)
Michelle Obama+3100 (3.1% Chance)
RFK Jr+6400 (1.5% Chance)
Gavin Newsom+4500 (2.2% Chance)
Nikki Haley+16900 (0.6% Chance)
โœ… Last VerifiedJune 14, 2024

 

The odds of Donald Trump winning the general election are currently -125. President Joe Biden is at +200.

Trump also captured the Iowa Caucus on Jan. 15, officially ending Vivek Ramaswamy's candidacy. Ramaswamy finished third behind Trump and DeSantis. Ramaswamy then endorsed Trump, another feather in the cap for the former president on his road back to the Oval Office.

While bettors won't be able to use a BetMGM Ohio bonus code to wager on the outcome, Trump's shortened odds might hint that he is still the all-powerful figure he once was considered in the party.

Who Donald Trump Would Likely Be Running Against

Trump will run against President Biden in a re-run of the 2020 U.S. election. The fact that the two have already agreed to debate clearly signals that this is now a race between Trump and Biden. 

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Biden Favored In First CNN Debate

Despite Trump being the favorite to win the election, he is a significant underdog in the first CNN debate against President Biden, set for June 27. Ladbrokes, the UK-based gambling company, has set early odds of Biden winning the first debate at -277, with a 74% implied probability of defeating Trump via the CNN Snap Poll. (Odds not available in the U.S.)

Candidate

Odds

Implied Probability

President Biden

-277

74%

Donald Trump

+200

33.3%

Why the disparity between the election odds and the first debate? CNN's Julian Zeliizer writes during the 2020 election, Biden was "effective during the debates, pushing back against claims that he was too old for the presidency." Meanwhile, Trump "revealed much about himself, such as when he refused to condemn White supremacists and told the far-right group Proud Boys to 'stand back and stand by,' which they did until January 6, 2021."

Now Trump will also face heavy criticism from Biden following his felony convictions.

Latest Trump VP Odds: June 2024

With Trump such a heavy favorite to return to the White House, it's time to consider who he might pick to serve as his Vice President, with Mike Pence - Trump's VP during his first term - not in the running. 

bet365 currently has Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina (+400) and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum (also +400) as the current co-favorites.

With slightly longer odds are Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio (+500), Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida (+750) and former Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (+900), who left the Democratic Party just two years ago.

Vance, the famous author, has been touting Trump in Ohio and is said to have become a close friend of the former president. 

Then there is Ben Carson (+1600). Carson has added to his relatively bare political resume since first coming on the scene in 2016, serving as the 17th United States Secretary of Housing and Urban Development from 2017 to 2021. 

Could Nikki Haley (+3500) really be in play as Trump's VP? The former South Carolina Gov. had momentum against Trump for the Republican nomination in late 2023, though her odds continue to lengthen. 

 

Tim Scott+480 (17.2%)
Doug Burgum+600 (14.3% Chance)
J.D. Vance+820 (10.9% Chance)
Ben Carson+1550 (6.1% Chance)
Nikkie Haley+2000 (4.8% Chance)
Elise Stefanik+2200 (4.3% Chance)
Tulsi Gabbard+2400 (4% Chance)
โœ… Last VerifiedJune 14, 2024

 

Key Developments for Donald Trump Odds To Be President

The question "will Trump run in 2024?" was asked as soon as he disputed the 2020 result. While there is no evidence that election was "stolen" from him as he claims, Trump didn't immediately announce he would run again.

Here are the key developments of Trump's 2024 presidential campaign and the odds:

  • ๐Ÿ“… May 2024 - A New York jury convicts Trump of 34 felony counts tied to a plan to influence the 2016 election.
  • ๐Ÿ“… May 2024 - Trump and Biden agree to two CNN debates, with the first on June 27.
  • ๐Ÿ“… March 2024 โ€“ The U.S. Supreme Court reverses Coloradoโ€™s December decision that Trump is disqualified from running for president.
  • ๐Ÿ“… January 2024 โ€“ Ron DeSantis drops out of the race and endorses Donald Trump.
  • ๐Ÿ“… January 2024 โ€“ Trump wins the Iowa Caucus; Vivek Ramaswamy drop out and endorses Trump.
  • ๐Ÿ“… January 2024 โ€“ Trump appears in DC in front of an appeals court regarding one of his federal criminal charges.
  • ๐Ÿ“… September 2023 โ€“ A second Republican debate took place on Sept 27, and though Trump again sat out, he overtook Joe Biden as the betting favorite for the 2024 presidential election. 
  • ๐Ÿ“… August 2023 โ€“ A Republican debate took place on August 23. All major candidates took place in the debate aside from Trump, who elected to sit out. 
  • ๐Ÿ“… July 2023 โ€“ DeSantis' odds continue to slide as polls indicate the GOP will pick Trump to take on Biden in 2024. Thirteen major candidates have so far declared their intention to run in the primaries. Trump is polling at 50% and his election odds fall to +200.
  • ๐Ÿ“… May 2023 โ€“ Trump's presidential odds fall to +350 despite being found liable for the sexual abuse of writer E. Jean Carroll.
  • ๐Ÿ“… April 2023 โ€“ Biden announces his election campaign with a glossy video on social media, but his odds barely move. Trump, meanwhile, is indicted and appears in a NY courtroom. His odds on winning the GOP nomination fall to -128.
  • ๐Ÿ“… December 2022 โ€“ The Jan. 6 committee recommends criminal prosecution against Trump on four counts. His odds widen to +700 as DeSantis overtakes him.
  • ๐Ÿ“… November 2022 โ€“ Trump appears unstoppable heading into the midterms and his re-election odds overtake Biden at +200. But a disappointing night for the Republicans sees his price rebound to +450 within hours.
  • ๐Ÿ“… August 2022 โ€“ Trump's pick for Wyoming in the upcoming midterms, Harriet Hageman, beats Trump critic Liz Cheney in a show of his grip on the GOP. Bookmakers cut his odds of +275.
  • ๐Ÿ“… February 2022 โ€“ News emerges that a number of documents Trump had been keeping at his Mar-a-Lago home were marked classified. The Justice Department eventually opens an investigation but Trump's odds remain around +300.
  • ๐Ÿ“… December 2021 โ€“ Biden announces he will seek a second term if Trump runs again. Trump's odds fall to +300.
  • ๐Ÿ“… May 2021 โ€“ Trump begins work getting his picks for the 2022 midterms into position, while continuing to argue the last election was stolen from him. A poll finds 63% of Republicans think he's right. His odds return to +700.
  • ๐Ÿ“… January 2021 โ€“ The Trump re-election odds spiral to +2000 following the Jan. 6 insurrection.
  • ๐Ÿ“… December 2020 โ€“ Ohio betting sites price Trump as the +600 second favorite behind recent victor Biden to win the 2024 U.S. election.

Is Donald Trump Running for President in 2024?

Yes. Donald Trump is running for president in 2024 and according to the Republican nominee odds, betting sites think he has a 60% chance of winning. Trump needs to first secure the Republican nomination but is leading that race against Haley. It's very likely we will witness a repeat of 2020 when Trump faced Democrat veteran Biden for the White House.

Can Trump Win Presidency in 2024?

Trump can definitely win the presidency in 2024 if the polls and latest politics lines are anything to go by. The Trump election odds sit at -150, which carries an implied probability of 60%. Biden, by contrast, is at +162 (38%). Crucially, Trump's support is growing across the GOP and centrist voters who backed Biden last time aren't sold on the president now.

What Are Donald Trump's Chances To Be President in 2024 or 2028?

When assessing the Trump odds, 2024 is a much more realistic date for him to become president than 2028. bet365 currently prices Trump at -150 to win in 2024. Were he to lose that election, it's unlikely he would run again as an 82-year-old in 2028. But then again, that's how old Biden will be at the next election.

The odds might look good for Trump but they could be even better. Trump needs to win the Republican primaries first, then face Biden.

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What the Sportsbooks Have Trump Presidential Odds At

bet365 currently has Trump's presidential odds at -150, just ahead Biden at +162. bet365 is one of the biggest online sportsbooks in the world and has a license in several American states, including Ohio. However, U.S. bettors cannot legally wager on politics, and these political odds are pulled from bet365's UK site, not bet365 Ohio.

Trump has plenty of rivals for the Oval Office, with DeSantis initially viewed as his biggest adversary. The Florida governor's odds had widened to +4000 in recent months before he dropped out.

What Are the Odds of Trump Winning in Ohio?

Betting sites are yet to provide their odds on individual states for the 2024 election but the odds usually follow the polls. The latest Ohio polls back Trump to crush DeSantis in the primaries, while a November 2022 poll found the ex-president led Biden by 18 points. So confident was one UK sportsbook that Trump would win Ohio in 2020 that the book pulled its odds before the vote. It was implied Trump had a 66.6% chance of winning Ohio then, and those odds of -200 look reasonable for 2024 too. It's worth noting, Ohio sportsbook promos will not be available for any Trump 2024 odds.

Trump Presidential Odds FAQs

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The experts at BetOhio who bring you the latest updates in Ohio sports betting. We pull together decades of experience to give you analysis as well as comparisons of the best OH online gambling apps.

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