Trump 2024 Odds: Trump Presidential Odds Vs. Kamala Harris and Winning Probability (November 2024)

History was made in July as President Joe Biden formally announced he would not run for a second term. In becoming the first incumbent eligible in 56 years to eschew re-election, he threw his support behind Vice President Kamala Harris for the November election against Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump.

With Harris now the official Democratic nominee, the 2024 U.S. presidential election odds have been adjusted once again, and Trump, fresh off debating Harris on Sept. 10, is again the favorite with 24 hours to go.

Trump’s odds to win the election for the second time in eight years are now -163, which equals an implied probability of 62%. He and Harris (+140) are now in a two-person race, as Trump's large advantage over Biden has evaporated. Can Trump and his VP pick JD Vance regain the White House in less than a week? 

Those odds are set by bet365 but not available at bet365 Ohio Sportsbook. While bet365 has an Ohio sports betting license, political wagering, a popular market in Europe and Canada, is prohibited in any American state.

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Latest Donald Trump 2024 Odds To Be President

Former President Donald Trump lost the last election by more than seven million votes but has refused to step away from frontline politics. Instead, his desire to return to the White House has never been stronger – when comparing the latest Democratic nominee odds with Trump's odds, they suggest he still may be on course for victory.

Disclaimer: Bettors in the United States are unable to place wagers on any government election due to political betting in any capacity being prohibited. However, sportsbooks with licensed authorization outside the U.S. — including bet365 — offer betting odds for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Bet365, which has secured licenses in several jurisdictions across America, is currently offering 2024 presidential odds in both the United Kingdom and Canada. 

Trump’s odds have lengthened from the -225 odds he had during the Republican convention. Harris’ of course continued to shorten after Biden dropped out, and her VP selection of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz has also helped her galvanize moderates and independents who aren't sold on a Trump return to the White House.

And of course, Harris once again briefly became the favorite after the Sept. 10 debate.

Who Donald Trump Would Likely Be Running Against

Trump’s opponent will now officially be Harris, as she was confirmed at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in late August. 

Trump Loses Ground After First Harris Debate

Trump and Kamala Harris  had their first debate on ABC on September 10. Over 67 million viewers tuned in, and unfortunately for Trump, his odds lengthened slightly afterwards. Trump during the debate again faced questions over his claims he won the 2020 presidential election, as well as issues of immigration and foreign policy. 

Pop star Taylor Swift also endorsed Harris on Instagram shortly after the debate.

While the debate did little to help Trump, he is again the favorite as of Nov. 4.

How To Watch Next Trump-Harris Presidential Debate

The first Trump-Harris debate aired on ABC at 8pm ET and streamed on ABC News Live, Disney+ and Hulu. "World News Tonight" anchor David Muir, along with ABC News Live "Prime" anchor Linsey Davis, served as the moderators.

Rules of the Trump-Harris Debate

The rules for the 90-minute debate meant each candidate’s microphone was only turned on when it was their turn to speak and the candidates weren’t allowed to talk to their staff during breaks or bring any notes with them. Both candidates were provided with only a pen and pad and a bottle of water.

When is the Next Trump-Harris Debate? 

Trump and Harris never agreed to a second debate, with just two weeks remaining until election day.

Fallout From JD Vance-Tim Walz Debate on Oct. 1

The first vice presidential debate hosted by CBS News was set for Oct. 1 in New York City, with Walz and Vance both agreeing to participate. The debate was moderated by "CBS Evening News" anchor and managing editor Norah O'Donnell and "Face the Nation" moderator and CBS News chief foreign affairs correspondent Margaret Brennan.

In a bit of confusion, Vance agreed to the debate and also has advocated for a CNN debate on September 18th as well, though the Harris campaign has maintained the Oct.1 will be the only in which Walz participates. 

Vance by many accounts performed well in the debate, and he deserves credit for helping Trump again overtake Harris and Walz on the oddsboard after the debate. CNN wrote Walz was "noticeably less comfortable onstage than Vance."

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Latest Trump VP Odds: April 2025

The search is over. Hours before Trump first appeared at the Republican convention, he announced on social media that Ohio U.S. Sen J.D. Vance would be his vice presidential candidate.

Vance had been a strong favorite in recent weeks, with near even-money odds prior to Trump’s decision. Delegates at the convention officially added Vance to the ticket. He is the venture capitalist who rose to fame in 2016 after writing Hillbilly Elegy, a New York Times best-selling memoir about his family life. He then parlayed the book’s success into winning a U.S. Senate seat two years ago.

Others who had been considered for the position included North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, a retired neurosurgeon and former Trump HUD Secretary Ben Carson, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin and South Carolina U.S. Sen. Tim Scott.

Below are the last bet365 odds for Trump's VP before he confirmed Vance.

Has JD Vance Helped Trump's Cause? 

Since Trump chose Vance as his running mate, much has changed across the election landscape. Biden is out, and Harris and Walz have taken the spotlight. Vance's lack of political experience continues to drive debate across national news outlets.

Key Developments for Donald Trump Odds To Be President

The question "will Trump run in 2024?" was asked as soon as he disputed the 2020 result. While there is no evidence that election was "stolen" from him as he claims, Trump didn't immediately announce he would run again.

Here are the key developments of Trump's 2024 presidential campaign and the odds:

• 📅 September 2024 - Trump and Harris debate each other for the first time in Philadelphia at the National Constitutional Center.
• 📅 August 2024 - Kamala Harris overtakes Trump as the favorite to win the election for the first time, the same week she appoints Tim Walz as her VP candidate.
• 📅 July 2024 – Biden officially drops out of the race and throws his support behind Harris to be the Democratic nominee
• 📅 July 2024 - Trump picks first-term U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance from Ohio to be his running mate.
• 📅 June 2024 - After their first debate, Trump's odds shorten, while President Biden faces hard questions about his performance. 
• 📅 May 2024 - A New York jury convicts Trump of 34 felony counts tied to a plan to influence the 2016 election.
• 📅 May 2024 - Trump and Biden agree to two CNN debates, with the first on June 27.
• 📅 March 2024 – The U.S. Supreme Court reverses Colorado’s December decision that Trump is disqualified from running for president.
• 📅 January 2024 – Ron DeSantis drops out of the race and endorses Donald Trump.
• 📅 January 2024 – Trump wins the Iowa Caucus; Vivek Ramaswamy drop out and endorses Trump.
• 📅 January 2024 – Trump appears in DC in front of an appeals court regarding one of his federal criminal charges.
• 📅 September 2023 – A second Republican debate took place on Sept 27, and though Trump again sat out, he overtook Joe Biden as the betting favorite for the 2024 presidential election. 
• 📅 August 2023 – A Republican debate took place on August 23. All major candidates took place in the debate aside from Trump, who elected to sit out. 
• 📅 July 2023 – DeSantis' odds continue to slide as polls indicate the GOP will pick Trump to take on Biden in 2024. Thirteen major candidates have so far declared their intention to run in the primaries. Trump is polling at 50% and his election odds fall to +200.
• 📅 May 2023 – Trump's presidential odds fall to +350 despite being found liable for the sexual abuse of writer E. Jean Carroll.
• 📅 April 2023 – Biden announces his election campaign with a glossy video on social media, but his odds barely move. Trump, meanwhile, is indicted and appears in a NY courtroom. His odds on winning the GOP nomination fall to -128.
• 📅 December 2022 – The Jan. 6 committee recommends criminal prosecution against Trump on four counts. His odds widen to +700 as DeSantis overtakes him.
• 📅 November 2022 – Trump appears unstoppable heading into the midterms and his re-election odds overtake Biden at +200. But a disappointing night for the Republicans sees his price rebound to +450 within hours.
• 📅 August 2022 – Trump's pick for Wyoming in the upcoming midterms, Harriet Hageman, beats Trump critic Liz Cheney in a show of his grip on the GOP. Bookmakers cut his odds of +275.
• 📅 February 2022 – News emerges that a number of documents Trump had been keeping at his Mar-a-Lago home were marked classified. The Justice Department eventually opens an investigation but Trump's odds remain around +300.
• 📅 December 2021 – Biden announces he will seek a second term if Trump runs again. Trump's odds fall to +300.
• 📅 May 2021 – Trump begins work getting his picks for the 2022 midterms into position, while continuing to argue the last election was stolen from him. A poll finds 63% of Republicans think he's right. His odds return to +700.
• 📅 January 2021 – The Trump re-election odds spiral to +2000 following the Jan. 6 insurrection.
• 📅 December 2020 – Ohio betting sites price Trump as the +600 second favorite behind recent victor Biden to win the 2024 U.S. election.

Is Donald Trump Running for President in 2024?

Yes. Donald Trump is running for president in 2024 and according to the Republican nominee odds, betting sites think he has a 62% chance of winning. 

Can Trump Win Presidency in 2024?

Trump can definitely win the presidency in 2024 if the polls and latest politics lines are anything to go by. The Trump election odds sit at -163, which carries an implied probability of 62%. While Trump has secured his Republican base, the likely candidacy of Harris, who turns 60 in October, may appeal to moderates and those who yearned who a candidate younger than either the 81-year-old Biden or the 78-year-old Trump.

What Are Donald Trump's Chances To Be President in 2024 or 2028?

When assessing the Trump odds, 2024 is a much more realistic date for him to become president than 2028. bet365 currently prices Trump at -163 to win in 2024. Were he to lose that election, it's unlikely he would run again as an 82-year-old in 2028.

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What the Sportsbooks Have Trump Presidential Odds At

As of Oct. 22, bet365 has Trump's presidential odds at -163, ahead of Harris. bet365 is one of the biggest online sportsbooks in the world and has a license in several American states, including Ohio. However, U.S. bettors cannot legally wager on politics, and these political odds are pulled from bet365's UK site, not bet365 Ohio.

Trump has had plenty of rivals for the Oval Office, with Ron DeSantis initially viewed as his biggest adversary. The Florida governor's odds had widened to +4000 before he dropped out.

What Are the Odds of Trump Winning in Ohio?

Betting sites are yet to provide their odds on individual states for the 2024 election but the odds usually follow the polls. A November 2022 poll found the ex-president led Biden by 18 points. So confident was one UK sportsbook that Trump would win Ohio in 2020 that the book pulled its odds before the vote. It was implied Trump had a 66.6% chance of winning Ohio then, and those odds of -200 look reasonable for 2024 too. It's worth noting, Ohio sportsbook promos will not be available for any Trump 2024 odds.

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