Trump 2024 Odds: Trump Presidential Odds and Winning Probability

Fact Checked by Thomas Leary
Donald Trump speaks at press conference

Donald Trump is preparing to run for president once again in 2024 and the latest election betting odds suggest he is in a great position to return to the Oval Office โ€“ and win Ohio along the way.

Trump is soaring in the polls among Republican voters and looks destined to beat Ron DeSantis and a handful of other candidates to the GOP nomination next spring.

The businessman has grown his base in recent months to a point where he is now ahead of President Joe Biden in the political betting markets, despite not yet participating in a Republican primary debate. The Trump 2024 odds are now +175, meaning he's well-positioned for a presidential challenge. 

Latest Donald Trump 2024 Odds To Be President

Former president Donald Trump lost the last election by more than seven million votes but has refused to step away from frontline politics. Instead, his desire to return to the White House and defeat Democrat Joe Biden has never been stronger โ€“ when comparing the latest Democratic nominee odds with Trump's odds, they suggest he is on course for victory.

โญ Donald Trump+175 (36.4% Chance)
Joe Biden+200 (33.3% Chance)
Gavin Newsom+900 (10% Chance)
Ron DeSantis+1200 (7.7% Chance)
Michelle Obama+1400 (6.7% Chance)
Vivek Ramaswamy+1600 (5.8% Chance)
โœ… Last VerifiedSeptember 30, 2023

The odds of Donald Trump winning the election shortened to its current price of +175 after he skipped the second Republican primary debate in California on Sept. 27. Despite not being present, Trump gained ground over the likes of Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy and Nikki Haley.

Trump's shortened odds may hint that he is still the all-powerful figure he once was considered in the party.

Who Donald Trump Would Likely Be Running Against

Trump will almost certainly run against Biden in a re-run of the 2020 U.S. election. But before that he needs to get through the Republican primaries, where he'll face the likes of DeSantis, Nikki Haley, and Vivek Ramaswamy.

Key Developments for Donald Trump Odds To Be President

The question "will Trump run in 2024?" was asked as soon as he disputed the 2020 result. While there is no evidence that election was "stolen" from him as he claims, Trump didn't immediately announce he would run again.

Here are the key developments of Trump's 2024 presidential campaign and the odds:

  • ๐Ÿ“… September 2023 โ€“ A second Republican debate took place on Sept 27, and though Trump again sat out, he overtook Joe Biden as the betting favorite for the 2024 presidential election. 
  • ๐Ÿ“… August 2023 โ€“ A Republican debate took place on August 23. All major candidates took place in the debate aside from Trump, who elected to sit out. 
  • ๐Ÿ“… July 2023 โ€“ DeSantis' odds continue to slide as polls indicate the GOP will pick Trump to take on Biden in 2024. Thirteen major candidates have so far declared their intention to run in the primaries. Trump is polling at 50% and his election odds fall to +200.
  • ๐Ÿ“… May 2023 โ€“ Trump's presidential odds fall to +350 despite being found liable for the sexual abuse of writer E. Jean Carroll.
  • ๐Ÿ“… April 2023 โ€“ Biden announces his election campaign with a glossy video on social media, but his odds barely move. Trump, meanwhile, is indicted and appears in a NY courtroom. His odds on winning the GOP nomination fall to -128.
  • ๐Ÿ“… December 2022 โ€“ The Jan. 6 committee recommends criminal prosecution against Trump on four counts. His odds widen to +700 as DeSantis overtakes him.
  • ๐Ÿ“… November 2022 โ€“ Trump appears unstoppable heading into the midterms and his re-election odds overtake Biden at +200. But a disappointing night for the Republicans sees his price rebound to +450 within hours.
  • ๐Ÿ“… August 2022 โ€“ Trump's pick for Wyoming in the upcoming midterms, Harriet Hageman, beats Trump critic Liz Cheney in a show of his grip on the GOP. Bookmakers cut his odds of +275.
  • ๐Ÿ“… February 2022 โ€“ News emerges that a number of documents Trump had been keeping at his Mar-a-Lago home were marked classified. The Justice Department eventually opens an investigation but Trump's odds remain around +300.
  • ๐Ÿ“… December 2021 โ€“ Biden announces he will seek a second term if Trump runs again. Trump's odds fall to +300.
  • ๐Ÿ“… May 2021 โ€“ Trump begins work getting his picks for the 2022 midterms into position, while continuing to argue the last election was stolen from him. A poll finds 63% of Republicans think he's right. His odds return to +700.
  • ๐Ÿ“… January 2021 โ€“ The Trump re-election odds spiral to +2000 following the Jan. 6 insurrection.
  • ๐Ÿ“… December 2020 โ€“ Ohio betting sites price Trump as the +600 second favorite behind recent victor Biden to win the 2024 U.S. election.

Is Donald Trump Running for President in 2024?

Yes. Donald Trump is running for president in 2024 and according to the Republican nominee odds, betting sites think he has a 36.4% chance of winning. Trump needs to first secure the Republican nomination but is leading that race against the likes of DeSantis and Haley, with 50% of GOP voters backing him. It's likely we will witness a repeat of 2020 when Trump faced Democrat veteran Biden for the White House.

Can Trump Win Presidency in 2024?

Trump can definitely win the presidency in 2024 if the polls and latest politics lines are anything to go by. The Trump election odds sit at +175, which carries an implied probability of 36.4%. Biden, by contrast, is at +200 (33.3%). Crucially, Trump's support is growing across the GOP and centrist voters who backed Biden last time aren't sold on the president now.

What Are Donald Trump's Chances To Be President in 2024 or 2028?

When assessing the Trump odds, 2024 is a much more realistic date for him to become president than 2028. bet365 currently prices Trump at +175 to win in 2024, which has an over one-in-three probability. Were he to lose that election, it's unlikely he would run again as an 82-year-old in 2028. But then again, that's how old Biden will be at the next election.

The odds may look good for Trump but they could be even better. Trump needs to win the Republican primaries first, then face Biden. Betting sites are unwilling to reduce Trump's odds any lower than +150 because they also have to factor in other potential GOP figures.

Therefore, we won't get a true sense of Trump's chances of winning the presidency until the primaries are over. 

What the Sportsbooks Have Trump Presidential Odds At

bet365 currently has Trump's presidential odds at +175, ahead Biden at +200. bet365 is one of the biggest online sportsbooks in the world and has a license in several American states, including Ohio. However, U.S. bettors cannot legally wager on politics, and these political odds are pulled from bet365's UK site, not bet365 Ohio.

Trump has plenty of rivals for the Oval Office, with DeSantis his biggest adversary. However, the Florida governor's odds have widened to +1200 in recent months.

How to Read the Trump Presidential Odds

Reading Trump's odds is fairly straightforward. He is priced at +175 to win the presidency, which means a bettor would win $175 in profit from a $100 wager. If his odds rose to +450, a bettor would win $450 profit from the same $100 stake.

What Are the Odds of Trump Winning in Ohio?

Betting sites are yet to provide their odds on individual states for the 2024 election but the odds usually follow the polls. The latest Ohio polls back Trump to crush DeSantis in the primaries, while a November 2022 poll found the ex-president led Biden by 18 points. So confident was one UK sportsbook that Trump would win Ohio in 2020 that the book pulled its odds before the vote. It was implied Trump had a 66.6% chance of winning Ohio then, and those odds of -200 look reasonable for 2024 too. It's worth noting, Ohio sportsbook promos will not be available for any Trump 2024 odds.

Trump Presidential Odds FAQs


The experts at BetOhio who bring you the latest updates in Ohio sports betting. We pull together decades of experience to give you analysis as well as comparisons of the best OH online gambling apps.

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