Donald Trump tops the Republican nominee odds by some distance as figures from across the GOP prepare for what is set to be a dramatic series of primaries across the country in 2024. The Republican nomination is the big prize at stake as the likes of Trump, Florida governor Ron DeSantis, Ohio's own Vivek Ramaswamy and Nikki Haley seek to top the ticket heading into the next U.S. election.
Betting sites have earmarked Trump as the big favorite for months despite the ex-president's long list of lawsuits against him. Trump has his eyes on a return to the White House but might not have it all his own way during the Republican Party primaries, with rivals preparing to try and take him down.
It means the election betting odds for the GOP primaries are in a constant state of flux – and there's no knowing what might happen come the spring of 2024. On Wednesday, Sept. 28 candidates (minus Trump) participated in the second debate of the primary cycle in California, with some notable odds movement the day after. The big takeaway as the Republucan primary cycle moves along? Trump's odds to win the Republican nomination again shortened, despite the fact that he has not yet participated in a debate.
Latest 2024 Republican Nominee Odds
The Republican nominee odds 2024 have been steadily moving in recent months as more and more politicians announce their intention to run. Ohio's own Vivek Ramaswamy is one of the candidates, and he saw his odds shorten after the first debate in Milwaukee, brifly moving into a still-distant second place behind Trump, but ahead of DeSantis. However, less than a month later, DeSantis overtook Ramaswamy and moved back in position as the second favorite.
DeSantis and Ramaswamy remain in their positions behind Trump following the second debate, as both failed to close the gap on the former President.
The odds below are from UK platform Bet365. It's crucial to note that political betting isn't legally permitted for U.S. bettors.
Favorites to be the Republican Nominee in 2024
There were two big favorites to be named the Republican nominee in 2024, while another name is on the periphery and could feasibly get the job, although they're more likely to be named a vice presidential candidate. Here's some more detail on the big names in the race:
- Donald Trump – Carrying a 77% chance of winning the primaries, and comparing Democratic nominee odds to Republican nominee odds, Trump still looks destined to face Joe Biden once again in 2024 despite not participating in the first two debates. The businessman has a huge resource of donations for his campaign, has die-hard MAGA supporters backing him, and is skilled at attacking his opponents. Trump thrived in the 2016 primaries by playing off his rivals against each other. He could do that again this time.
- Ron DeSantis – DeSantis was a favorite for the GOP pick in January 2021 when Trump faced a string of legal issues. Though DeSantis lost momentum after the first debate and briefly fell behind Ramaswamy, his odds are now +700 to win the nomination after the second debate, still significantly behind Trump, but ahead of Ramaswamy.
- Vivek Ramaswamy – Betting sites earlier in August saw Ramaswamy, who has never held office, as a significant longshot with odds around +3300. But the former tech and finance executive gained significant ground, briefly overtaking DeSantis with a 14.3% chance of winning the primaries after the first debate. However, he has fallen back to third on the board over the past month, and sits just ahead of Nikki Haley at +1100.
- Best of the Rest – After DeSantis there is a rabble of other figures who want their shot at the Republican primaries. This includes Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Nikki Haley and former VP Mike Pence. The best they can likely hope for is being a vice presidential pick for one of the three frontrunners here.
Will Trump Choose Not to Run in 2024?
No. Trump is definitely running for the 2024 US presidential election, having announced his campaign before the 2022 midterms. Those elections actually went badly for Trump, with a string of his endorsed picks failing to win seats. Some argue it cost the GOP a majority in the Senate to add to its House of Representatives victory.
Trump's campaign is raising nearly $15 million every quarter from donations. He'll need to ramp that up next year to challenge Biden but his fame and notoriety is expected to be enough to carry him through the primaries.
Odds For Ron DeSantis To Win The 2024 Republican Nominee
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was considered to be one of the top GOP Republican nominees to win the 2024 Presidency. The latest odds still place him as one of the most likely contenders to win, after Donald Trump and ahead of Vivek Ramaswamy. The 2024 elections are still quite a ways away meaning DeSantis could be waiting to see what happens with Trump's legal troubles. Ron DeSantis has high election odds in Florida and a national influence which means its very possible these Republican nominee odds will increase over the coming months.
Latest 2024 Republican Nominee Odds Set At bet365
Online sportsbook bet365 has set odds to win the 2024 Republican nomination, and is overwhelmingly backing Trump. In fact, bet365 has given Trump its backing for all but a few weeks since he lost the 2020 election. Only Ron DeSantis, and now Vivek Ramaswamy, have come close to rivaling Trump.
Recognized as one of the largest online betting communities, bet365 holds licenses in multiple U.S. states, including Ohio. However, it's crucial to note that political betting isn't legally permitted for U.S. bettors, and these political odds are derived from bet365's U.K. platform. You will not find these odds at bet365 Ohio.
How to Read the 2024 Republican Nominee Odds
Reading the Republican nomination odds is fairly straightforward, and we'll use Trump and DeSantis to explain how it works. DeSantis is +700 to win the nominee. That means a bettor who wagers $100 on DeSantis will get $800 back as profit (plus their $100 stake). Trump is priced in the negative, at -334. Here, a bettor needs to wager $334 just to get $100 in profit (plus their stake). That shows just how much of a favorite Trump is right now.
Republican Vice Presidential Odds
Political betting on the Republican nominees for 2024 goes beyond who might run, or win, the Presidency. There are ample Republican Vice Presidential nominee odds that are available at sportsbooks like bet365 UK or Ladbrokes. What bettors might find interesting is the potential prospects of one of these candidate running or winning. At this time, there are several 2024 VP candidates, below are the latest odds.
Can Ohio Bettors Bet on Republican Nominee Odds?
Political betting odds will not be available at any of the Ohio sportsbooks. This is because you cannot legally bet on the Republican Nominees or any other election in the United States. Bettors may choose to follow the odds betting odds out of interest and to see how the race is going. Its also worth noting because you cannot bet in Ohio on politics, there will be no legal Ohio sports betting promo for this type of market. We would highly recommend to avoid any offshore operator marketing these odds; most notably because this is not legal at the state or federal level.
Key Developments for Republican Nominees 2024
Here are some of the key developments that have taken place so far in the race for the GOP pick:
- 📅 September 2023 - Trump's odds for the nomination shorten after the second debate, despite not taking part once again.
- 📅 September 2023 - Ron DeSantis' odds for the nomination shorten, though he remains a distant second to Trump.
- 📅 August 2023 - After the first GOP debate, Vivek Ramaswamy overtakes Ron DeSantis on the oddsboard.
- 📅 July 2023 – DeSantis' odds inflate as polls indicate the GOP will pick Trump in 2024. Thirteen major candidates have so far declared their intention to run in the primaries. Trump is polling at 50% and his odds fall to -275.
- 📅 May 2023 – DeSantis announces his presidential campaign in a nightmare Twitter discussion with Elon Musk that is beset with tech problems. Trump, meanwhile, is being found liable for the sexual abuse of writer E. Jean Carroll.
- 📅 April 2023 – By this point Trump is the renewed favorite. He is indicted and appears in a New York courtroom. His odds sink as low as -175 despite the charges.
- 📅 February 2023 – Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy announce their presidential campaigns. Haley gets a bump in the odds but Ramaswamy's price remains unchanged.
- 📅 December 2022 – The Jan. 6 committee recommends criminal prosecution against Trump on four counts. His odds leap the +250 and Ron DeSantis becomes the +100 favorite.
- 📅 November 2022 – Trump announces he is running for president before the midterms and his odds drop to -150. However, a disappointing night for Trump-endorsed candidates sees the market shift again.
- 📅 February 2022 – Reports emerge that documents Trump had been keeping at his Mar-a-Lago home were marked classified. DeSantis tries to jump on the news without ruining his support. The Justice Department opens an investigation but Trump's odds fall to +100.
- 📅 November 2021 – Glenn Youngkin and Chris Christie emerge as possible alternative candidates to Trump as the Republicans seek to move away from MAGA politics.
- 📅 July 2021 – DeSantis rises in popularity and fame across the U.S. His odds come in neck-and-neck with Trump at +350.
- 📅 January 2021 – Trump's odds widen to +600 following the Jan. 6 insurrection, as DeSantis becomes the new favorite.
- 📅 November 2020 – Trump loses the election but betting sites price him at +300 to win the next GOP nomination.
Can Donald Trump Win the 2024 Republican Nominee?
There appears little that can stop Trump winning the 2024 GOP nomination. Trump Presidential odds for 2024 have him as the solid favorite and his price has steadily dropped over the past year. This was the trend even when he was found liable for sexual abuse, and was in court in New York over confidential records.
What's more, Trump thrived in 2016 when a multitude of candidates argued their case to be the GOP nominee. Trump will likely achieve the same success when televised primaries are broadcast across the country, from Ohio to Florida.
Does Ron DeSantis Have a Chance at Winning the 2024 Republican Nominee?
Ron DeSantis has an outside chance of winning the Republican party nomination. However, he is currently losing supporters and his odds are widening. DeSantis has been accused of trying to "out-Trump" Trump, rather than cutting his own course to power. Right now it's not working.
Will Trump be Beat for the Party Nomination?
Betting sites don't think Trump will lose the Republican party nomination. The election odds suggest he has a 77% chance of securing the vote and that price is likely to change if he wins the first Iowa caucus on January 15. It's hard to see who can stop Trump and he could run for president even if he is jailed over the DOJ's confidential records case.
2024 Republican Nominee Odds FAQ
Donald Trump has the best odds to win the Republican primaries at -334, which gives him an implied probability of 77%.
The 2024 Republican election odds show Trump is favorite at -334 to be the GOP nominee, with DeSantis at +700.
The Republicans are yet to pick their nominee for the 2024 US presidential election but Donald Trump is currently the main nominee in the betting odds and the polls.
Justin Byers previously worked at Front Office Sports as a Business Writer with stops at FanSided covering the NBA and at the Indianapolis Star as a Sports News Clerk. Byers received his B.A. in Political Science from Emmanuel College and M.A. in Sports Journalism from Indiana University. He currently resides in Indianapolis.